POLLS: KATZ NOT BRAND, CORZINE – KATZ MADE PUBLIC

Farleigh Dickenson and Quinnipiac University have both released polling data which seem to contradict each other as to the impact of local Communication Workers of America (CWA) President Carla Katz's relationship with Governor Corzine. From September 18 – 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,230 , pg.3, New Jersey voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind poll of 701 likely voters statewide was conducted from September 17 through September 23 and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.

At first blush the polls may appear contradictory and therefore open to spin. Fairleigh reports that 428 (61 %) of the 701 surveyed have not heard of Carla Katz (pg.3) . Quinnipiac, however, finds that 677 (55 %) of the 1,230 surveyed (pg.12) think Corzine - Katz - Riccio should be a matter of public record. The implied contradiction is if people do not know recognize the name “Carla Katz” how can they think the Corzine -Katz emails should be released to the public? The apparent inconsistency is especially interesting because the July 22, 2007 Monmouth University - Gannett poll found "about half (49%) , pg.6, of the New Jersey public have heard reports about emails Corzine exchanged with Carla Katz, a former girlfriend who heads one of the CWA locals involved in the state contract negotiations this year.

Finally, none of the polls demonstrate the attributes of bias or disinformation associated with a “push poll”.

The answer seems to be context. Fairleigh asked participants’ , pgs. 1 - 3, were asked four similar questions in succession; (1) have you heard of Jon Corzine? (2) Have you heard of Frank Lautenberg? (3) Have you heard of Bob Menendez? And, (4) have you heard of Carla Katz?

The conclusion to be drawn from this progression is the independent brand name recognition for “Carla Katz” is somewhat low. Why independent? It’s called the Zeigarnik effect. Just as a restaurant waiter only remembers orders as long as the order is in the process of being served,
so survey participants only remember the question until it is answered. Therefore, survey respondents are associating the names as separate brands of politician and are not thinking about and in fact have forgot about Jon Corzine when they answered the Katz question.

Carla Katz’ low name, or brand, recognition, however, is not a plus for the Democrats since voters’ not familiar with her apart from Governor Corzine have yet to form, or more probably express, their opinion about the Corzine – Katz email matter.

This leads one to the Quinnipiac poll. First, its strucure is equivalent to the Monmouth University - Gannett poll , pg.6.

Quinnipiac question 51, pg.11, reads as follows:

“It was recently reported that Governor Corzine gave gifts totaling $15,000 to Rocco Riccio, the brother-in law of former girlfriend Carla Katz. How much have you heard or read about this issue - A lot, some, only a little, or nothing at all?”

Question 52 reads (pg.12):

“The Governor says that he used private resources to help someone in financial trouble, it is a private relationship and should be a private matter. Others say these monetary gifts should be a matter of public record and suggest an independent investigation to be sure there is no conflict of interest. Which comes closer to your view on this issue - It is a private matter between Jon Corzine and Rocco Riccio or it should be a matter of public record and independent investigation?”

Answers to # 51 show 873 (71%) of the 1230 people surveyed had at least some familiarity with the matter. And, answers to #52 show 677 (55%) think Corzine-Riccio should be a matter of public record and an independent investigation.